The Reactor That Didn't Retire

By Gary Payne, MBA Founder of FuneralCostOntario.ca The Fine Print We had a family friend who lived near Pickering, and for years I drove past the nuclear generating station regularly. Those enormous reactor buildings became a familiar part of the trip. These days I live farther north, and the plant is still part of the landscape. I didn't need to know much about what was happening inside to recognize it from the road. That familiar plant was back in the news this week. On Monday, September 21, Ontario announced that work had started on the refurbishment of Pickering's four remaining operating reactors. They're being taken out of service by the end of September and will remain offline for about a decade while they're rebuilt. The plan is to bring them back in the mid-2030s and keep them generating electricity for decades after that. It's a remarkable second career for a plant that was approaching retirement.You might assume artificial intelligence had something to do with that decision. After all, we keep hearing about the electricity needed to power AI and the enormous data centres being built to support it. But Ontario asked Ontario Power Generation to examine refurbishing Pickering back in September 2022, before ChatGPT arrived. The province was already preparing for more homes, electric vehicles and industry. AI wasn't what put Pickering's refurbishment on the table. The data centres have since joined the line, and they're asking for a remarkable amount of electricity. In August, the Independent Electricity System Operator reported roughly 7,000 megawatts of data-centre connection requests, about double what had been reported in March. That's electricity those companies want access to, not power they're already using. Some projects may never be built. But the demand being proposed is considerable, and it arrives just as Pickering is preparing to stop generating electricity for the next decade.There's a problem to work through in the meantime. Environmental Defence has warned that taking Pickering offline could increase Ontario's reliance on natural gas to generate electricity, adding to greenhouse gas emissions. The province says the refurbishment will secure decades of nuclear power once the reactors return. Both the years without Pickering and the years after it comes back matter when planning Ontario's electricity supply.Which brings me back to something closer to home. The hydro bill. Most of us look at the amount owing, perhaps compare it with last month, and pay it. But there's a line worth noticing near the bottom of an eligible Ontario household's bill called the Ontario Electricity Rebate. Last November, the province increased that rebate to 23.5 per cent, helping offset an increase in electricity rates. The rate we're charged and the amount that ultimately comes out of our pockets aren't quite the same thing. The Ontario Energy Board's explanation of last November's price changes pointed to higher-than-expected generation and conservation costs. It didn't name the new wave of data centres as a cause. So when someone says AI is already responsible for that increase, the explanation from the agency that sets the rates doesn't support it. What happens next is another matter.In August, Ontario proposed separate electricity pricing for large new data centres. The province says it wants to prevent the costs of their growth from being passed along to existing customers. That's the promise. The details are still being worked out, including which facilities would be covered and how their charges would be calculated. Somebody has to pay for the electricity and the equipment needed to deliver it.Data centres have their uses. They support everything from online banking and shopping to the photographs we store on our phones. They can bring investment and jobs, too. But the electricity they need has to come from somewhere, and building the infrastructure to serve them takes time. From October 6 to 9, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission will hold a public hearing in Ajax on Pickering's licence renewal and proposed refurbishment. The site work has started, but the regulatory process is still underway. A plant I've driven past for years is about to go quiet for a long time, and the discussion about its future is taking place right here in Durham.I still know where to look for Pickering when I'm driving past. The buildings are hard to miss. Most of us will never see the data centres that are asking to join Ontario's electricity system. But we'll still have the hydro bill.