Canada and the turbulent world around us.
by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU E. CHISU, CD, PMSC,
FEC, CET, P. Eng.
Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East
Dynamic global trends, challenging governance and the rapidly changing nature of power, will drive major consequences in the world in the very near future, and Canada will not be immune to these changes.
They will raise tensions across all regions and types of governments, both within and between countries. These near-term conditions will contribute to the expanding threat from terrorism and leave the future of international order in jeopardy.
The public will push governments to provide peace and prosperity more broadly and reliably at home when what happens abroad is increasingly turbulent.
A hobbled Europe, uncertainty about America's role in the world, and weakened norms for conflict-prevention and human rights create openings for the political ambitions of China and Russia, two authoritarian powers.
This combination of perceived weaknesses of established democracies, will also embolden regional and non state aggressors-breathing new life into regional rivalries, such as those between Riyadh and Tehran, Islamabad and New Delhi, and on the Korean Peninsula.
If we look closely at the European Union, it is likely to face additional problems, because the banks remain unevenly capitalized and regulated, migration within Europe and into Europe will continue, and Brexit will encourage regional and separatist movements in other European countries.
Europe's aging population will undermine economic output, shift consumption toward services-like health care-and away from goods and investment. A shortage of younger workers will reduce tax revenues, fueling debates over immigration to bolster the workforce.
The EU's future will hinge on its ability to reform its institutions, create jobs and growth, restore trust in elites (leadership), and address real public concerns that immigration will radically alter national cultures.
In the United States despite signs of economic improvement, challenges will be significant, with public trust in leaders and institutions sagging and politics highly polarized. Advances in robotics and artificial intelligence are likely to further disrupt labor markets.
Meanwhile, uncertainty is high around the world regarding Washington's global leadership role. Foreign countries and governments will be watching Washington for signs of compromise and cooperation, focusing especially on global trade, tax reform, workforce preparedness for advanced technologies, race relations, and its openness to new ideas of governance at the state and local levels.
However, a lack of domestic progress would signal a shift toward retrenchment, a weaker middle class, and potentially further global drift into disorder and regional spheres of influence.
Yet, America's capital, both human and intelligence security, is immense. Much of the world's best talent seeks to live and work in the United States, and domestic and global hope for a competent and constructive foreign policy remain high.
Finally, America is distinct because it was founded on an inclusive ideal-the pursuit of life, liberty, and happiness for all, however imperfectly realized-rather than a single race or ethnicity. This legacy remains a critical advantage for managing divisions.
Turning to opposing entities to world order let us start with China. China at present faces a daunting test-with its political stability in the balance. After three decades of historic economic growth and social change, Beijing, amid slower growth and the aftereffects of a debt binge, is transitioning from an investment-driven, export-based economy to one fueled by domestic consumption. Satisfying the demands of its new middle class for clean air, affordable housing, improved services, and continued opportunities will be essential for the government to maintain legitimacy and political order.
President Xi's consolidation of power could threaten an established system of stable succession, while Chinese nationalism-a force Beijing occasionally encourages for support when facing foreign friction-may prove hard to control in the long term.
We have seen it recently in the Hong Kong, social turbulence, which, if it continues, will also affect Canadian housing prices, health care and job market, if the 300,000 expat Canadians living in Hong Kong, decide to come back to Canada.
In addition, the trade relations between Canada and China are at the lowest ebb right now, and this will have negative effects on the Canadian economy, especially agricultural products.
With China flexing its military muscle in South East Asia and modernizing its military, we cannot expect positive outcomes in the future if reason does not prevail.
Finally, speaking about Russia; it still aspires to restore its great power status through nationalism, military modernization, nuclear saber rattling, and foreign engagements abroad. The frozen conflicts and the annexation of Crimea from the Ukraine and lately the revival and rapid modernizations of the military bases in the Arctic are vivid examples of hegemonistic Russia.
Yet, at home, it faces increasing constraints as its stagnant economy heads into a third consecutive year of recession.
Moscow prizes stability and order, offering Russians security at the expense of personal freedoms and pluralism.
Moscow's ability to retain a role on the global stage-even through disruption-has also become a source of regime power and popularity at home.
Russian nationalism is strong, with President Putin praising Russian culture as the last bulwark of conservative Christian values against the decadence of Europe and the tide of multiculturalism. Putin is personally popular, but sagging approval ratings for the ruling party reflect public impatience with the deteriorating quality of living conditions and abuse of power.
As to these authoritarian powers, we have noticed with concern, a tactical cooperation between China and Russia in which both have moved aggressively in recent years to exert greater influence in their regions, in order to contest the US geopolitically, and to force Washington to accept exclusionary regional spheres of influence-a situation that the United States has historically opposed.
Meanwhile, India's growing economic power and profile in the region will further complicate these calculations, as New Delhi navigates relations with Beijing, Moscow, and Washington to protect its own expanding interests.
I am not going to examine further the growing tensions around the Korean Peninsula which are likely to lead to serious confrontation in the region in the coming years, a possibility of great concern to Japan.
With all this turmoil simmering around the world, and at our doorstep, where is Canada to position itself as a middle power with the second largest land mass, but a small population of 36 million people?
At this stage our relations with China and Russia are at the lowest level politically. We also have political issues with India. Relations with the US are shaky both regarding the ratification of the new trade agreement, and political difficulties in our relationship with the White house and a deeply divided Congress.
So what are we to do? What can our political leadership do?
Obviously we cannot stay idle and I am hopeful that our political leadership will be able to navigate our nation out from these turbulent waters.
I will leave it with you to reflect upon these issues with the national election imminent …