Canadian politics at the beginning of 2020

Canadian politics at the beginning of 2020
by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU E. CHISU, CD, PMSC,
FEC, CET, P. Eng.
Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East
   Canadian politics at the beginning of 2020
In preparation for the opening of the House of Commons on the 27th of January, political parties are working hard to get ready for the minority government.

The liberal caucus met for three days in Winnipeg focusing on their objectives in the context of the new reality; as a minority government they will need opposition support to survive and get anything done.

We know for sure that the first, immediate order of business once the House resumes will be the ratification of the new NAFTA deal, CUSMA (Canada, US, Mexico Agreement).

Passing CUSMA is one of the priorities for the liberal government. Whether it will pass or not is another question. It seems that the Bloc Quebecois won't support the new deal without more supports for aluminum workers, and neither the NDP nor the Conservatives are clear on their support, with both parties having said they want to review it closely.

Other items on the liberals' radar, include pharmacare, protecting the environment and stricter gun control measures, but there are no specifics on what may come forward as legislation or when. They are basically focusing on their campaign promises, but how they will be able to deliver is a question mark for the moment.

On national pharmacare for example, the Liberals could face opposition not just from other federal parties, but from provinces and territories as well, since health care is a provincial responsibility.

On gun control, the implementation of different Liberal proposals would happen eventually in a multi-stage process, with a proposed ban on assault rifles coming first, and a buy-back program later, but this will be a complex issue.

Meanwhile, on medically-assisted dying, Quebec's Superior Court has handed the Liberals a due date of March 11, to make changes to federal legislation, after the court found some parts of it too restrictive, and therefore unconstitutional.

So it seems that the Liberal plan for the winter sessions may be clear - CUSMA, pharmacare, gun control, climate action - but how and when they plan to move on most of them still remains a mystery.

While the Liberals are strategizing about how they will do business in the context of a minority government, the official opposition, the Conservative Party is involved in a leadership contest, after the resignation of their leader as a result of last year's disappointing (for them) election.

The Conservatives are trying to figure out how to become the governing party again, but they might make their own situation worse. Personally, I fear they may choose a leader repellent to the West and unattractive to the rest of the country.

However, the core of the Conservative problem appears to be far more complicated. They want to please everybody, but wind up pleasing nobody. They want to appeal to socially liberal young urbanites and their cranky rural base at the same time.

They promise lavish spending and stimulative deficits plus tax cuts and balanced budgets.
They want to appeal to Quebec while not appeasing it.
They want to cut equalization and increase it.
They want to eliminate corporate subsidies and give them to everyone.
They want to have internal free trade and a milk marketing cartel.
They are trying to move left and in the mean time seeking support of their right-wing base
These counter-objectives define the essence of the Conservative split personality that must be resolved if they are to succeed.  To be successful, a political party must have a unique and unified vision for how best to govern the country so it will move ahead both economically and culturally.

I am often bewildered at how they expect the electorate to vote for them as long as they do not have original ideas on governing differently from the Liberals, but only try to imitate them.

In view of this philosophical confusion and with a full leadership contest ahead of them, the Conservative efficiency in the House of Commons in the spring session will be predictably weak.
With regard to the other official parties in the House, the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP, their role might be more important in the context of a minority government. They have not yet revealed where they stand on some issues, but that will depend on the situation and legislation introduced by the Liberals. However, I do not believe they will be eager to bring down the government. The NDP especially, which lost half of their seats in the last election, reduced to only one seat in Quebec where they had  a stronghold before, will be cautious not to trigger an unexpected election in which they might lose their party status. So they will be trying to save face in the House in order to maintain their base support.

In conclusion, it will be an interesting spring in Parliament, and there will certainly be some surprises. We can be assured however, that this upcoming parliamentary session will be less boring than it would be in a majority government context. 

Don't you think?