Canadian Fall Politics

by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU. CHISU, CD, PMSC, FEC, CET, P. Eng. Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East Summer vacation is over and parliamentarians are returning to Ottawa to deal with issues and vote for new pieces of legislation. It has been an eventful summer with many important domestic and foreign issues arising, constituting both happy and unhappy surprises. These will certainly influence the fall session of the House of Commons. The Conservative Party held a successful convention this summer, energizing the party and getting ready for elections. Pierre Poilievre’s party has vaulted ahead in the polls by harnessing post-pandemic anxiety: high inflation, rising interest rates, the ever-ballooning grocery prices and the runaway cost of home ownership in Canada. Poilievre appears to be building a winning coalition that bridges populists and social conservatives with center-right moderates. An election could come as early as next year, or as late as the fall of 2025, depending on the durability of a governing agreement between the Liberals and the New Democratic Party. When the time comes however, Trudeau’s team should not be surprised to find themselves in the position of the betting underdog. Poilievre was the undisputed star this month when more than 2,500 Conservative Party faithful gathered for a policy convention in Quebec City. The Centre des Congrès de Québec buzzed at Poilievre’s ability to reunite a party that had splintered since losing power to Trudeau’s Liberals in 2015. The polls also seem to be kind to them. The Conservatives hold a commanding lead of 41 percent of votes, compared to 26 percent for the Liberals and 18 percent for the NDP. The governing liberals seem to be in disarray, incapable of countering the main negative issues that are engulfing the country. In desperation, the Liberal counterattack line is that Poilievre is importing “far-right, American-style politics” north of the border and soon we will see the governing party ready to flood the airwaves with that message. It is unfortunate that they resort to this kind of smear campaign rather than looking at how to correct the mistakes they have made. The affordable housing issue is a hot one. Back in 2015, the average price of a home in Canada was C$413,000. The Canadian Real Estate Association reported a massive mid-pandemic spike past C$800,000 before gradually dropping to C$668,000 in July 2023. After meeting with caucus in London, Ontario, where his party's sinking political fortunes were raised, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a fleet of new measures aimed at countering rising housing and grocery prices. The federal government says it will remove the GST from the construction of new rental apartments to spur new development. The GST change announced Thursday was part of the Liberal Party's election platform in 2015. The Liberal government abandoned that policy in 2017, saying there were better ways to boost rental construction, and here we go again, resurrecting failed promises instead of coming up with new ideas. Another big issue is the rising crime rate, especially in Toronto, which is a liberal stronghold. This is a concern for the liberal party and they will try to focus on this issue in a way that convinces the electorate that they are serious about it, hoping to regain lost ground. As such, they are prioritising the bail reform bill. Canada's bail system came under heavy scrutiny after Const. Grzegorz (Greg) Pierzchala of the Ontario Provincial Police was killed late last year. Randall McKenzie, one of the two suspects in the murder, was out on bail for assault and weapons charges, and also had a warrant out for his arrest. On the grocery file Trudeau, reversing course, said the grocery chains have until Thanksgiving to share their plans to stabilize their prices and if they do not act the government will take action. "It's not okay that our biggest grocery stores are making record profits while Canadians are struggling to put food on the table," Trudeau said at a recent press conference. Another hot issue with international ramifications is the Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference in Federal Electoral Processes and Democratic Institutions. It is still unclear when the hearings will start and how much of the recently appointed commissioner Justice Marie-Josée Hogue's work will be made public. According to her terms of reference, she has to deliver an interim report by the end of February. A final report is due by the end of 2024. On the international scene Canada has developed problems with India recently, in addition to the problems we already have with China. This is not good news for Canada because the cooling of relations with India might have unforeseen effects on the Canadian economy. In my opinion Canada should focus on resolving internal critical issues, dedicating funding to these, rather than adventuring unprepared into international relations, spending relentlessly on soon-to-be-failed projects. The government should show more responsibility about how taxpayers’ money is spent. Besides the federal parliamentary issues, there are local issues brewing in Ontario. The soon-to-be-sitting Province of Ontario legislative assembly will be facing hot issues such as the Greenbelt scandal about to take off. Certainly, this fall will be an interesting one, and there is a faint hope that Canadians will see some better results for their money. So let’s be positive. Let us not abandon hope!