Canadian Politics on the Ropes

Canadian Politics on the Ropes by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU. CHISU, CD, PMSC, FEC, CET, P. Eng. Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East A turmoil is washing across North America. The Trump administration has embarked on a tariff war that is causing grave concern in Canada. The resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in early January ignited a Liberal leadership contest won by Mark Carney in early March. Mr. Carney is a former Governor of the Bank of Canada and of the Bank of England. With no political experience, he is now the Prime Minister of Canada in a very sensitive political and economic situation, especially with regard to relations with the United States. In the meantime, his becoming leader of the Federal Liberal Party and consequently the Prime Minister of Canada seems to have produced a real tsunami in the polls; reversing the fortunes of the Liberal Party. In December 2024 the Conservative party led by Pierre Poilievre had a commanding advantage of 20 points over the Liberal Party and what looked like an almost certain chance to form the next government. However, this advantage in the polls has suddenly evaporated, as there is a new game in play to determine who will form the next government of Canada. A new National Post-Leger poll shows that 42 per cent of Canadians now say they plan to cast a ballot for Mark Carney’s Liberals, while 39 per cent say they intend to vote for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. It is a stunning recovery in the polls for Carney’s Liberals. Support for the party, which has governed since 2015, had plummeted over the last year. The Conservatives held a significant lead, suggesting an election would lead to Liberal decimation in the House of Commons and a Poilievre-led supermajority. The Conservative Party now faces a Liberal Party Leader with substantial credentials and work experience both in public service and private business. A Prime Minister who has not held an elected position previously, is also unprecedented in Canadian history. Not since 1984 has a Prime Minister been elected who wasn’t an MP. While John Turner was not a sitting MP when he became prime minister, he had previously served as an MP. He became Liberal Party leader and prime minister in June 1984 but did not win a seat in Parliament until the September 1984 election. There do not appear to be any recent precedents for such a situation in Australia, New Zealand, or the United Kingdom. The Canadian public seems to have reacted to these dynamic and rapid succession of events, and the results are astonishing. With an election call expected within days, before the prorogation of the Parliament expires on the 24th of March, a new national poll shows the Liberals leading the Conservatives by three points. Certainly, the Conservative party will have a difficult time in the weeks leading up to the next federal election. To win, they need to change gears and adapt to this new reality. However, considering the advisers and the inner circle of the leader, they are unlikely to have either the imagination or the tools to make the necessary dynamic and useful changes. I base this opinion on the fact that Mr. Pollievre is surrounded by the same people who lost the 2015 election for Stephen Harper, and subsequently for Andrew Sheer and Erin O’Toole as well. After years of promising to axe the carbon tax, Conservatives watched in obvious horror as Prime Minister Mark Carney did it for them on his first day in office. They could have chosen to take a victory lap here. They could have celebrated the elimination of a policy they had attacked with enormous amounts of political time and resources, and moved on to the far more pressing matters at hand. Instead, they threw a collective temper tantrum. Maybe Mark Carney is not as inexperienced on the political scene as some people have assumed. Mr. Carney’s decision to zero-out the consumer carbon tax with the stroke of his prime ministerial pen is starting to look like a well-laid trap his opponents jumped into, headlong. Melissa Lantsman, the deputy leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, a former staffer, has suggested that “he’s pausing it for the election so he can trick you into believing it’s gone.” Former CPC leader Andrew Scheer, also lacking in all but political experience, described this move as “a con,” apparently all part of his “Carbon Tax Scam.” Finally, Pierre Poilievre got into the act, putting the cherry on top, with the accusation that, “After 9 years of battling for a carbon tax, do you really trust the Liberals not to bring it back? Dream on.” The trauma of watching their signature campaign pledge enacted by their new opponent reverberated throughout the Conservative universe. Really, the Conservative Party needs to change its approach, like yesterday. Changing their approach is the only way they can possibly secure victory. We will soon see if they are capable of the changes needed to focus on the real issues generated by the adversarial relations developing with Canada’s Southern neighbour. Pierre Poilievre needs to realize that the biggest political danger for him might be on the Canada-U.S. file, which has taken on an understandably existential dimension over the last few months. In an election that will be fought over who can best protect Canada’s economy from President Trump, Pierre Poilievre needs to find reliable ideas to put to Canadians, in order to win. Here is the question: will he be able to do so in the short period of time available? Otherwise, he will go down in history as a Don Quixote,”tilting at windmills” Let us hope for the best.