The rise of China and the dangers ahead

 The rise of China and the dangers ahead
by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU E. CHISU, CD, PMSC,
FEC, CET, P. Eng.
Former Member of Parliament
Pickering-Scarborough East
It seems to me that a new danger is rising over the horizon and the Western world, including Canada, is ignoring it. Countries once united against the Soviet Union in the cold war era, now seem disunited in dealing with Communist China.

The risk of Chinese "adventurism" is rising, while great power rivalry that used to characterize Central Europe during the Cold War, has shifted to the Pacific region. Yes, today it is China that represents the bigger menace over the long term to Western values and interests. At present, China is primarily an economic and political threat. Not an immediate military threat yet, but heading in that direction at high speed.
China's primary ambition is to supplant the United States at all cost, as the world's largest economy and the region's dominant power. It also learned from the relatively mild world reaction to Russia's annexation of Crimea, that the annexation of Taiwan might be feasible in the very near future.
Steered by a clever and highly educated leadership, modelled on a modified communist doctrine that has been transplanted into a contained capitalistic economical environment, China is now a real and a dangerous addition on the world's political scene.  With lessons learned from the failures of previous communist regimes, it represents a formidable force.

The People's Republic of China had outlived its one-time ally and patron, the Soviet Union. After all, it has cracked down on Hong Kong, clashed with India in the Himalayas, levied tariffs on Australia after officials criticized its handling of the coronavirus, and said Britain would "bear the consequences" for excluding telecom firm Huawei from its 5G network. Neither has Canada escaped Chinese retribution. The arrest of Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig was in retaliation for Canada's arrest of Huawei's Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou.  Chinese spokesmen have also used derogatory words lately, in referring to Canadian leadership, and have listed Canadian MPs as persona non grata who dared to challenge them on human rights issues.

China has been steadily investing all over the world, with a shrewd interest in European infrastructure: State-run shipping companies own significant stakes in 13 European ports, for instance, and the telecom equipment company ZTE has a large presence in southeastern Europe.

When countries cede control of their infrastructure, their manufacturing
of strategic items, their resilience or ability to recover from the shock of a natural disaster or armed attack, suffers immensely. Such developments also make it easier for Beijing to impose its will.
China has already proved itself adept at using other tools in its arsenal - such as economic influence - to intimidate and coerce states, as when Beijing imposed an eight-year ban on Norwegian salmon in retaliation for the awarding of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize to a Chinese dissident.
It used the same tools on Canadian exports of canola following the arrest of Huawei's Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou. They also restricted PPE exports just as Canada's supplies reached critical stage in the COVID-19 fight.  Being the producers of 50% of the world supply, they can wield a heavy hand there.
 
To safeguard against a future when China decides to wield its growing military power in a similar fashion, it is important to reorient military alliances towards South East Asia.  NATO should refocus today, and invest more in military assets and planning in that region. The entire Western world needs to focus more on China than pay such disproportionate attention to Russia. We must be careful not to force Russia to gravitate towards an alliance with China.  That would be extremely dangerous. Strategically it is extremely important to avoid the formation of a Moscow -Beijing axis.

China has already begun to encroach on the North Atlantic region as well. In the Arctic, for example, Beijing is working on liquid-natural-gas drilling projects with Russia; it is also sending icebreakers to the Norwegian Sea. Not to mention that sooner or later China will encroach on Canadian interests in the Arctic.  There has already been an attempt to buy a mining operation, which, for the moment, has not succeeded.
To address these developments, Canada cannot stay idle.  We must start by formally and seriously including the "High North" in strategic documents for the first time.  We must increase Canadian presence in the region by all possible means, including a robust military. This issue pertains to North American security, and therefore Canada must work closely with the United States on it.

For the western allies a rapid refocusing on South East Asia and curtailing Chinese ambitions in the region is a must. It is necessary to deepen and broaden the relationships with partners in the Indo-Pacific region and Canada must play an important role.

By necessity, refocusing on China would involve a change in the mind-set of existing traditional military alliances such as NATO. Beyond ending the training and advising missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, pausing NATO expansion for the moment would make sense, since it would be inadvisable to add new members - such as Ukraine and Georgia, thereby provoking Russia - as it works out its identity crisis.
Russia is already pretty much contained; admitting Ukraine and Georgia now, a move for which many Europeans have little appetite, would doom arms-control and other negotiations with Moscow. Regrettably, as with Russia, Europe is divided over how to deal with China. Many European allies are wary of picking sides in the struggle for influence between the United States and its Asian rival.

Some, like Germany, even appear outright resentful at the suggestion that they must choose. German Chancellor Angela Merkel rushed last year to conclude the E.U.-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment
China's rise is indisputably the most significant geopolitical development of the 21st century. It would be strange for the Western world including Canada to ignore the challenge and to downplay the danger posed by China's growing influence in the world.

The 2020s are shaping up as the dangerous decade and hopefully China does not do something rash.

Hope for the best!