Canada's long hot summer

 Canada's long hot summer

    by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU E. CHISU, CD, PMSC,
FEC, CET, P. Eng.
Former Member of Parliament
Pickering-Scarborough East
   As election rumors are becoming more and more persistent from the appointment of a new governor general to a flurry of spending announcements, an early Canadian federal election is now quite a foregone conclusion.

The polls are looking good for the governing liberals and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh can ask the prime minister to hold off for another two years, but no one is ready to listen.  Across the country, parties and candidates are gearing up for the fight that's palpable in the summer heat. Apparently out of the Covid-19 pandemic scare, it seems that temptations are running high for a federal election.

The only question is when the election will be called. As parliament is not sitting non confidence votes are not on the horizon and only the Prime Minister can call the election.

Still there are many factors at play besides looking good in the polls.  There is the vaccine rollout, and regional issues including the Alberta referendum on equalization, scheduled for Oct. 7 and an imminent election in Nova Scotia.

The rules in Nova Scotia for an election campaign are, first, the vote will be held on a Tuesday and, second, the campaign must be at least 30 days long. So, if the Premier of Nova Scotia, Iain Rankin, drops the writ any time up until and including this week or the next, that implies an election day of August 17 in Nova Scotia at the earliest. His decision is almost certain to have an impact on any decision Prime Minister Justin Trudeau might make about the timing of the country's 44th general election. Trudeau and Rankin, both leaders of Liberal parties, are very close to each other and in close contact.

Let's assume then that Trudeau will call the general election at his first available opportunity after Aug. 17.
The rules for the federal campaign are, first, the vote will be held on a Monday and, second, the campaign must be a minimum of 36 days long.
So that implies that the earliest date for a federal election would be Sept. 27, with the federal writ drop sometime between Aug. 18 and Aug. 22.
Regardless of what he ultimately decides to do, the Prime Minister isn't going to announce his intentions until he's en route to Rideau Hall.

Another issue working in favor of an early federal election is the fact that Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford, both deeply unpopular at present, may dampen federal Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole's support. Having Kenney preaching the evils of equalization while O'Toole is trying to drum up votes in Quebec is a real Liberal dream, as is reminding Ontario voters of their government's chaotic and ill-received pandemic response.

To add to the cause is the implosion of the Green Party, which is still busy playing knife-the-leader. Even if the party gets it together, much damage has been done, with voters potentially turned off and turning away. The question is who will benefit most if their 6.5 per cent of the 2019 vote slips away: the NDP or the Liberals?

So as the politicians speculate and the Prime Minister weighs all these considerations, seeking to score a coveted majority, Canadians are busily getting back to their almost-normal lives. In politics, as in post-pandemic life, it seems, everything old is new again.

While the liberals are basking in all these good news for them, the official opposition, the conservatives, are not doing so well.
The official line in Conservative circles is: Don't panic. Campaigns matter, a week is a long time in politics, remember what happened to David Peterson, etc…
However, it is becoming clearer by the day that the Conservatives are lacking leadership. Certainly Erin O'Toole's approval numbers must be dismaying to Conservative supporters. Just 14 per cent of respondents in the latest Nanos poll picked him as their preferred prime minister, versus 37 per cent for Justin Trudeau - and 18 per cent for Jagmeet Singh. With a rudderless party and a weather vane leader what can you expect?

In terms of policy on many of the most important issues of the day, Conservatives have either had nothing to say or have really actively just antagonized voters they might otherwise have reached. You cannot lead by issuing only motherhood statements. You need to have new and innovative ideas and take a strong position on what you believe to be traditional conservative policies - free markets, lower taxes, balanced budgets - and promoting and defending it with vigour. More broadly, under Erin O'Toole's guidance the Conservative party seems to have lost its nerve becoming an amorphous entity in danger of losing badly in the next election; reminiscent of the Liberal loss in the 2011 election under the leadership of Michael Ignatieff.

Moreover, while the Liberals, have always been able to recruit individuals with a record of accomplishment in other fields, the Conservatives unfortunately tend to get stuck with the lifers, people who have never done anything but partisan politics and are motivated by nothing other than hatred of the Liberals and detached from the real life and concerns of citizens. That attitude has given a bigger opportunity to the new nascent People's Party of Canada to stand up to the real conservative values.

So the imminently upcoming federal election will be an interesting one and do not forget to vote for the best people to represent you.

Have a wonderful and covidless summer