Presidential election in the United States and Canada’s Future

Presidential election in the United States and Canada’s Future by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU. CHISU, CD, PMSC, FEC, CET, P. Eng. Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East With the presidential and general elections over in the United States, resulting in the re-election of President Donald Trump of the Republican Party, we can expect a new era to begin. Certainly, these elections will have a deep effect in Canada due to the proximity and strong historical connections between the two countries. Clearly it was not the result that many governments of Europe or even Canada wanted. Now the government of Canada needs to adapt and change accordingly; admittedly a drastic and difficult change to for our political leaders to undertake. I think that following his first mandate President Trump learned a lot and was capable of regaining the presidency of the United States despite many obstacles and against most of the political experts’ and main media’s predictions. It will be interesting to see how the political leadership of our two countries will react to this new and mostly unexpected situation. The decisive new element in the political life of the United States is a major shift toward the interests of the American nation, with a drastically reduced concentration on globalist issues. This will affect our bilateral relations on many fronts, especially on the economic and immigration fronts. President Trump, throughout this latest election campaign, has threatened to impose across-the-board tariffs on imports, to reopen America's trilateral free-trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, and to launch a mass deportation operation, evidently raising fears of a mass influx of American deportees into Canada. For example, trade experts and industry representatives have raised concerns about the potential consequences on both the American and Canadian economies of President Trump’s promised tariffs of 10 per cent or more on imported goods. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce estimates the resulting economic impact in this country would be a $30 billion loss annually. On the immigration side, President Trump has said he would begin deportations on Day One. His announcement in 2017 to end residency rights for those from Central America and elsewhere led to a surge across our border. Canada clarified with the Biden administration the Safe Third Country agreement reached with the George W. Bush administration as part of the Smart Border accord after 9-11 that curtailed migrant visa shopping. In anticipation of a potential surge of refugees and undocumented persons currently living in the United States, Canada needs to go to the Trump transition team with a sound and clear plan. In the longer term, Canada needs to discuss a joint binational border administration with the US that must include a shared approach to the people and goods entering our perimeter. Like it or not, borders are thickening with the United States. There continues to be a perception among some American legislators that Canada is ‘soft’ on who Canada lets in. A border pact will require Canada to share more information. The United States wants Canada to give them a list of convicted child molesters. Why are we hesitating? When Canada hemmed and hawed on sharing passenger manifests of flights crossing into United States airspace, the United States said ‘Fine, don’t fly in our air space”. In the end,' Canada provided the flight manifests. If the Canadian government does not act quickly and wisely, Canada risks having the walls and wires, hummers and helicopters along with the visas that apply to the southern border of the United States. So, let’s think big and start discussions on a new binational approach to border management. Dealing with and managing the relationship with Uncle Sam has been a constant in Canadian foreign policy since before Confederation. For the first century after the break-up of British North America there was always the threat that the US would fulfill its ‘manifest destiny’ and absorb Canada as it did with Mexico, taking a substantial chunk of their territory. We avoided that fate through pragmatic diplomacy, by creating institutions and an evolving web of agreements and arrangements that we keep evergreen. At their best they develop norms and rules and include dispute settlement. Dealing with the United States requires patience and perseverance. Canada must resist the temptation to pontificate and preach. Canada’s government needs to keep a vigilant eye on the administration’s agenda, identifying when we can be helpful and when we need to stand up for Canada. That means taking the initiative and coming up with imaginative solutions. Importantly, it means following through on Canada’s commitments. This is how Canada can achieve and level the playing field with the United States. It is how Canada must manage president Trump’s second term. The question is, will the government of Canada and the opposition parties be able to work together in the quest to get the best for the country from the new administration that will be taking power at the beginning of 2025? Clearly, we live in interesting times.