TO BE OR NOT TO BE ELECTIONS

 TO BE OR NOT TO BE ELECTIONS
    by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU E. CHISU, CD, PMSC,
FEC, CET, P. Eng.
Former Member of Parliament
Pickering-Scarborough East

With political parties itching for an early election, the question is whether an election at this point will warrant the attention of the people. With the Covid pandemic in recess, Canadians are starting to focus on the recovery of the economic.
However, many factors beside political ambitions are in place, which will determine the call for elections sooner or later. Indicators are strong, now that Canada has a Governor General and the minority government is starting to believe strongly that that they might have a good chance of getting a majority. Supported by the Conservative opposition's lack of ideas and the NDP's further drift to the left, an early election call is very close to reality. Pollsters say there is a window this fall in which the Liberals could win a majority, as Canadians embrace the freedom of being vaccinated and the latest budget injects billions of dollars into the economy.
Of course the timing of the election is important, since the pandemic seems to be a highlight in the Liberal government's performance in the eyes of Canadians who are now naturally starting to shift their focus towards economic recovery. In fact, attention shifting to the economy will not favor the governing Liberals who have spent, and continue to spend recklessly. So the window for an election favorable for them seems to be now rather than later.
Earlier this month the Bank of Canada also painted an optimistic picture of growth heading into the second half of the year, before the economic storm which is bound to come, will hit.
Another potential source of trouble is that with cold weather approaching, instead of fading from peoples' minds, COVID-19 will come roaring back as more contagious virus variants spread.
This is happening in the United States and elsewhere.
Despite the variety of issues on the carpet, the ultimate decision to ask the Governor General for an early election will be with the Prime Minister. How this will play out remains to be seen. The long-standing tradition of the Governor General acceding to Canadian Prime Ministers' requests to dissolve Parliament will practically push Mary Simon to accept a plea from Justin Trudeau to call an election. However, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has asked Simon to refuse any requests from Trudeau that would send voters to the ballot box, noting that the fixed-election law states that every general election must be held on the third Monday of October four calendar years after the last one.
In a letter to the Governor General Singh has stated that the law allows for an early election if  the government has lost the confidence of the House, but the Trudeau government has won every confidence vote it has faced, including the one on the speech from the throne and the budget. As usual, the NDP leader is telling half truths, in that the prime minister has the right to ask the Governor General to call an early election under the Constitution and the fixed-election law brought in by the Harper government did not change that.
However, surprises during election campaigns are not uncommon, in fact they often happen.
Who is to say that there won't be distressing news on the pandemic or the economy just around the corner, or some other unknown issues of the day for that matter? Who's to say the polling, an increasingly hazardous enterprise, is accurate or that it won't change after the writ is dropped? There is one very big constant in Canadian political history that plays strongly to the Liberal advantage and should not be overlooked. They have been and they still are the natural governing party. Other things being relatively equal, they will win. The Liberals have been in power for 71 of the last 100 years, 31 of the last 50. They have emerged victorious in 25 elections, compared to the 18 Conservatives victories.
In their political orientation, Canadians are predominantly progressive. It is evident in almost every election, wherein the combined vote of centre-left parties easily surmounts that of the conservative vote. However, that might change in view of the rise in globalist trends that work against national interests. That might give a real chance to new political parties who are more nation oriented. With a weak Conservative weather vane leader and a party lacking in constructive ideas, there is a real possibility that the Liberals will win a majority right now. To stop the Liberals, they'll
need a series of fortuitous campaign surprises which are less likely to occur. Then, as expected,
the natural governing party, the Liberals, will win again. Modern history also shows roughly 10-year governing stretches for parties before fatigue sets in. The Trudeau Liberals have only been in power for six years, suggesting that voter fatigue likely won't put the Conservatives over the top this time. A loss or a poor showing in the upcoming election for the Conservatives will signal a crisis in the party similar to that of the Liberals' Dion, Ignatieff fiasco. With Scheer's shredding of conservative values, followed so closely by O'Toole erring left right and center, there is some danger of a similar scenario unfolding for the Conservative Party. Maybe it is a time for Canadians to look for new parties to support. Parties with more Canadian oriented than globalist views, such as the emerging Peoples Party of Canada. In conclusion, we seem to be gearing up for an early fall election. Do not forget to vote for what you believe in.
Till then, continue to have a good summer.