Turmoil in the World

by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU E. CHISU, CD, PMSC, FEC, CET, P. Eng. Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East As we near the end of February and with the Winter Olympics just concluded in Beijing, the world is changing dramatically. The only good news currently is the excellent performance of our Canadian athletes who finished in fourth place overall, winning a total of 26 medals. Unfortunately, we were not really able to celebrate their outstanding performance because of the political turmoil at home, and some very serious problems brewing internationally. Here in Canada we had the Emergency Act in full force, till repealed hastily as enacted. This Act is unprecedented and its application seriously curtails personal liberties, so it should be invoked only in very critical cases. Political hypocrisy continues to reign, but there are limits of common sense that have been missing in the governance of our country for some time. As we wait to see the overall outcome and effects of these measures, I must repeat my hope that cooler heads than have been demonstrated so far, will prevail in the end. Internationally, the events leading to the stand-off between Ukraine and Russia constitute far from good news, and it seems that the situation is worsening by the day. After weeks of what appears to have been 'catch-the-tail-diplomacy' on the part of Russian President Putin, Russia's war against Ukraine ended with the recognition of the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, the breakaway provinces of Ukraine. These new "states" immediately requested the help of the Russian Federation against the imminent "military invasion" form Ukraine. In other words, the Russian military had a request for help from independent nations and they obliged immediately. Technically speaking the Russian army entered Ukrainian territory. The question, is what will happen next. Western nations, including Canada and the US were obviously not impressed and greeted this move by Russia with sanctions and other measures in order to help Ukraine maintain its territorial integrity as guaranteed by international law. Until now, this conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been through cyberwarfare: strategic corruption, ludicrous performative propaganda and other 21st-century innovations in domination tactics. With the launch of the beginning of a hot war in Eastern Europe, the most conspicuous front in the clash of ideologies, it has now been transposed to a 20th century-style, analog conflict. The narrative of today, the daily geopolitical, political, diplomatic, military, economic and humanitarian developments, is concerning and leading to an unchartered future. Already the rhetoric is in place, surrounded by speculation, portraying this wholly manufactured crisis as a real competition between Russia's Putin and the United States of America's Joe Biden. That obscures the crucial question of who started it and why. Touting as a bilateral personal feud, what could be a humanitarian catastrophe for the people of Russia, Ukraine and beyond. As the tense situation on the Eastern European front evolves rapidly, with Russian military capabilities along the Ukraine border at "near 100% of all forces" the Pentagon anticipates that Russia will eventually move further into Ukrainian territory. Russia has a "full range of capabilities" already moved previously to the Ukraine border, including "significant offensive missile capability," "two dozen warships in the Black Sea" and "armor, artillery, certainly infantry," so we can expect the worse in an escalation of the conflict. The explosive situation in Ukraine is of particular interest to Canada because of the more than 1.3 million Canadians of Ukrainian descent, many of whom still have strong connections to their ancestral land and are opposed to Russian interference in the country. Because of its size, the community is seen as having significant influence in parts of Ottawa, and is demanding that Canada support Ukraine. Canada as a medium power country sitting next to the world's largest superpower, has a massive stake in ensuring international norms and laws are respected to protect itself and global stability. Those include preventing one country from being allowed to invade or otherwise seize parts of another country. The fear is that ignoring Russia's actions weakens this prohibition, leading to the increased possibility of war in other places. Canada and its allies will now likely wait to see the size and scope of Russia's military incursion into Ukraine and whether it will extend beyond Donetsk and Luhansk. If it does, even heavier sanctions are likely. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced, that in addition to providing a 500 million dollar loan to Ukraine and the delivery of lethal weapons, Canada would be deploying 460 additional Armed Forces members to reinforce NATO in Latvia and Eastern Europe. It is also imposing economic sanctions against Russian lawmakers and financial institutions, banning any financial dealings with Donetsk and Luhansk and barring the purchase of Russian sovereign debt. Canada's moves followed similar steps by allies in the U.S. and Europe, with Germany stopping the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia -- a lucrative deal long sought by Moscow, but criticized by the U.S. for increasing Europe's reliance on Russian energy. The rest of the European Union also sanctioned Russian lawmakers and officials, financial institutions and defence companies. However, despite their repeated messages of support for Ukraine, Canada and its allies have repeatedly played down any suggestion they will send troops to reinforce the government in Kyiv. Western powers have long made it clear that the fate of Ukraine isn't worth a direct military confrontation with Russia and the possibility of a world war, so sanctions were the only option. This position is a weak one and reminds us of the end of WWII when many countries in Central Europe were abandoned by the Western allies to the grip of the Soviet Union and suffered for a half century under the communist yoke. Still we have hope that reason will prevail over the personal ambitions of the elites. Let us believe in a future without war!