The End of the Second Trudeau Era

by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU. CHISU, CD, PMSC, FEC, CET, P. Eng. Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East The New Year 2025 has brought us interesting surprises. There was the announcement made on the 6th of January by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that he intends to hand in his resignation as the Liberal Party Leader. This was an interesting day, automatically making us think about what happened on the same day in 2020 in the United States, even though something different was in our minds. The announcement of the Prime Minister was made on the same day that the Parliament of Canada was prorogued until 24th of March. The resignation of the Prime Minister also initiated a leadership action in the Liberal Party of Canada in order to choose a leader capable of withstanding the pressure from the Conservative Party of Canada, the official opposition. By now, we have seen that many polls indicate a commanding two digit lead by the Conservative Party, which means that if an election were called today, they would win a majority of seats in parliament. The governing Liberals have few options looking forward. An election has to be called soon; either in the late spring or in the early fall at the latest, because all the major opposition parties in parliament are ready to topple the minority government. Looking at the candidates in the Liberal leadership race, though we are in the early stages, there is more and more talk about the entrance of Mark Carney into the leadership race. If Carney, former Chairman of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, is elected, he will present a real challenge to the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre. Let us be clear. The Justin Trudeau era began with his rebuilding the Liberal Party and, in the 2015 election, bringing it to power. His ascent to power was also made possible by the inability of the Conservative Party to clearly see what was going on in the Canadian electorate. With a tired Prime Minister Harper supported by an incompetent staff dealing with the reality of the moment, the success of the Liberal Party under the Leadership of Justin Trudeau was greatly facilitated. The potential leadership of Mark Carney would put a new element into play in the upcoming election. Suddenly the Trudeau factor will no longer count and the old slogan of “killing the gas tax” associated with him is unlikely to work anymore, having been battered to death. Add to this the fact that the same staff and advisors who lost the 2015 election for Stephen Harper still have a commanding influence; an interesting election looms on the horizon. It will be a Conservative Party loss rather than a Liberal win. Reflecting on the Justin Trudeau era which has just ended, we can make some interesting observations. In his early days as Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau was "cool", with a majority of the youth electorate voting for him and admiring him. In the year that followed his majority sweep into power, he appeared in the pages of Vogue, on the cover of a Marvel comic book and other important media. He really created a movement in 2015 and he got a lot of young people engaged. However, the same people are asking for change today, and looking for a different leader, having lost confidence in him for not delivering his promise of a better life. Elections Canada data from the 2015 election showed that 57 per cent of voters aged 18 to 24 cast a ballot, an increase of 18.3 percentage points from the almost 39 per cent recorded in the 2011 election. Research conducted by Abacus Data following the 2015 vote suggested Liberals won the support of 45 per cent of young voters. Let’s face it, Canadians had a kind of parasocial relationship with Trudeau at the time. He had grown up in the public eye because of his father, former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, so people felt like they knew him. However, reality checked in, and the image started to fade. It all started in 2018 when Trudeau and his family took a much-ridiculed trip to India. They were photographed, over and over again, wearing clothes more appropriate for a wedding than a state visit. Then people started seeing it as: he's a bit of a phoney, and all of a sudden, some people were able to move from giving him the benefit of the doubt to realizing that instead of being authentic, he was actually manipulating them. Then, over time, the disconnect between promise and delivery broadened and that becomes a fundamental problem when you are dealing with a brand: the Trudeau brand. As a brand, Justin Trudeau was failing on a lot of promises because he was creating expectations that he was not fulfilling. He was dogged by a litany of scandals, from the SNC-Lavalin affair that saw two female cabinet ministers -- justice minister Jody Wilson-Raybould and health minister Jane Philpott -- resign, to the surfacing of old photos and video of Trudeau wearing black- and brown-face. Trudeau didn't live up to his feminist, culturally sensitive promise. Although Canadians re-elected Trudeau in 2019, he was knocked down to a minority government. The Liberals were unable to regain a majority in 2021. Therefore, Canada is in real turmoil on the brink of the crucial take over by President Trump’s Administration. It will be interesting to follow the quick succession of events that are to come. Let us hope that Canadian politicians will be able to navigate these dangerous high seas in the interest of preserving the very existence of Canada.