Party Politics in Canada

by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU. CHISU, CD, PMSC, FEC, CET, P. Eng. Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East We are entering the initial phase of a potential federal election that can technically be called at any time, but will most likely be held in the Fall of 2025. As such, the battle for nominations is already starting, with the political parties establishing their own criteria for selection of candidates, but in line with Elections Canada rules. Such battles are not without controversies, especially in the Conservative Party of Canada, which has a commanding lead in the polls at this time. It is tempting for many nomination candidates to come forward in the hope of being elected to the House of Commons. The results of a recent by-election in the riding of Durham confirmed the fact that the Conservative Party of Canada is doing well under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre. Conservative candidate Jamil Jivani, a lawyer and commentator, secured over 57 per cent of the votes in the riding of Durham, previously held by the former leader of the party, Erin O’Toole. Though the riding of Durham is a Conservative stronghold, in this by-election, it registered one of the largest margins of victory the Tories have had in the riding in the past 20 years. Jivani’s success comes as the Tories continue to surge in the polls, ahead of the governing Liberal party, pushing a message that promises to "axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget and stop the crime." In general, by-elections are low-turnout referenda on the government’s popularity and this was, after all, a Conservative seat. Yet the historically-high margin of victory seems to confirm all the recent polls foreshadowing a Poilievre majority in the making. However, there is a danger, that the Conservatives might be passing their best-before moment for sending the Liberals back to a well-deserved term in Official Opposition, if not a return to third-party status. In politics, things can change rapidly and mistakes can be costly. Despite chronic Liberal efforts to render themselves unelectable by rolling out gaffe after gaffe over boondoggles galore while enduring global humiliation amid a carnage of fiscal ineptitude, there is a chance the seemingly inevitable Conservative victory is not yet cast in stone. The liberals having negotiated a pharma care package with the NDP, the Liberals should be able to retain power until the scheduled vote in October 2025 - and that is a long time for the Conservatives to hold a commanding lead. So far, it is easy for Poilievre to merely oppose everything, particularly this liberal government, but the need to propose a future Conservative course in government is where the rocks lie for his breezy sail to victory. Complicating Poilievre’s drift toward a destiny as prime minister is the risk that NDP support collapses and drifts Liberal. This could happen as nervous voters strategically aim to prevent the Conservatives from winning so big that they preside over a one-party Parliament with token opposition. There are obviously other challenges to be faced and one of them is the selection of good candidates. Here challenges are already arising in the form of complicated backroom dealings. If not handled properly, these will put the Conservative Party’s aspirations for power in grave danger. Recent examples are not encouraging in this regard. One example is Arpan Khanna, a lawyer and former staffer of Jason Kenney who served as the Ontario co-chair for Pierre Poilievre's successful leadership bid. He subsequently became the national outreach chair for the Conservative Party. He then ran for the Conservative Nomination for the Riding of Oxford to succeed my former colleague, then-Member of Parliament Dave Mackenize. In February 2023, MacKenzie criticized Khanna for promoting a quote implying that Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre endorsed him for the nomination and the party was supporting Khanna's candidacy. Mackenzie believed it a violation of the party nomination rules based on the Conservative code of conduct. Anyway, on June 19, 2023 Khanna was elected MP in the riding. After the race, Conservative operatives accused the Liberals of racism for emphasizing their candidate’s local ties to the riding, in contrast to Khanna being an outsider. This is not an example of a fair and unbiased procedures for nominating candidates. Another example of this type of questionable behavior occured recently in the riding of Pickering Uxbridge. A young candidate for nomination with good credentials, who worked very hard within the party’s prescribed guidelines for potential candidates, was thrown under the bus by the party establishment, exercising quasi-dictatorial powers. They probably have someone else in mind for the riding, but that does not justify stripping a worthy potential contender of his rights. Should this kind of behavior continue, there is a danger that many people will become estranged from the Conservative Party, reducing their chances of becoming the governing party. It is imperative that the leader, Pierre Poilievre, be aware of this situation and intervene. Pierre Poilievre as the prime minister in waiting will have his performance judged more on clear answers than question period, and his plan for the future of Canada will be carefully scrutinized. 18 months (the likely time to the next election) is a very long time in politics. From the current high in the polls, the Conservative road to victory will start to get rougher and rougher. They need to aware, and beware of pitfalls.