Dollars and Sense
TO BE OR NOT TO BE ELECTIONS
by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU E. CHISU, CD, PMSC,
FEC, CET, P. Eng.
Former Member of Parliament
Pickering-Scarborough East
With political parties itching for an early election, the question is whether an election at this point will warrant the attention of the people. With the Covid pandemic in recess, Canadians are starting to focus on the recovery of the economic.
However, many factors beside political ambitions are in place, which will determine the call for elections sooner or later. Indicators are strong, now that Canada has a Governor General and the minority government is starting to believe strongly that that they might have a good chance of getting a majority. Supported by the Conservative opposition's lack of ideas and the NDP's further drift to the left, an early election call is very close to reality. Pollsters say there is a window this fall in which the Liberals could win a majority, as Canadians embrace the freedom of being vaccinated and the latest budget injects billions of dollars into the economy.
Of course the timing of the election is important, since the pandemic seems to be a highlight in the Liberal government's performance in the eyes of Canadians who are now naturally starting to shift their focus towards economic recovery. In fact, attention shifting to the economy will not favor the governing Liberals who have spent, and continue to spend recklessly. So the window for an election favorable for them seems to be now rather than later.
Earlier this month the Bank of Canada also painted an optimistic picture of growth heading into the second half of the year, before the economic storm which is bound to come, will hit.
Another potential source of trouble is that with cold weather approaching, instead of fading from peoples' minds, COVID-19 will come roaring back as more contagious virus variants spread.
This is happening in the United States and elsewhere.
Despite the variety of issues on the carpet, the ultimate decision to ask the Governor General for an early election will be with the Prime Minister. How this will play out remains to be seen. The long-standing tradition of the Governor General acceding to Canadian Prime Ministers' requests to dissolve Parliament will practically push Mary Simon to accept a plea from Justin Trudeau to call an election. However, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has asked Simon to refuse any requests from Trudeau that would send voters to the ballot box, noting that the fixed-election law states that every general election must be held on the third Monday of October four calendar years after the last one.
In a letter to the Governor General Singh has stated that the law allows for an early election if the government has lost the confidence of the House, but the Trudeau government has won every confidence vote it has faced, including the one on the speech from the throne and the budget. As usual, the NDP leader is telling half truths, in that the prime minister has the right to ask the Governor General to call an early election under the Constitution and the fixed-election law brought in by the Harper government did not change that.
However, surprises during election campaigns are not uncommon, in fact they often happen.
Who is to say that there won't be distressing news on the pandemic or the economy just around the corner, or some other unknown issues of the day for that matter? Who's to say the polling, an increasingly hazardous enterprise, is accurate or that it won't change after the writ is dropped? There is one very big constant in Canadian political history that plays strongly to the Liberal advantage and should not be overlooked. They have been and they still are the natural governing party. Other things being relatively equal, they will win. The Liberals have been in power for 71 of the last 100 years, 31 of the last 50. They have emerged victorious in 25 elections, compared to the 18 Conservatives victories.
In their political orientation, Canadians are predominantly progressive. It is evident in almost every election, wherein the combined vote of centre-left parties easily surmounts that of the conservative vote. However, that might change in view of the rise in globalist trends that work against national interests. That might give a real chance to new political parties who are more nation oriented. With a weak Conservative weather vane leader and a party lacking in constructive ideas, there is a real possibility that the Liberals will win a majority right now. To stop the Liberals, they'll
need a series of fortuitous campaign surprises which are less likely to occur. Then, as expected,
the natural governing party, the Liberals, will win again. Modern history also shows roughly 10-year governing stretches for parties before fatigue sets in. The Trudeau Liberals have only been in power for six years, suggesting that voter fatigue likely won't put the Conservatives over the top this time. A loss or a poor showing in the upcoming election for the Conservatives will signal a crisis in the party similar to that of the Liberals' Dion, Ignatieff fiasco. With Scheer's shredding of conservative values, followed so closely by O'Toole erring left right and center, there is some danger of a similar scenario unfolding for the Conservative Party. Maybe it is a time for Canadians to look for new parties to support. Parties with more Canadian oriented than globalist views, such as the emerging Peoples Party of Canada. In conclusion, we seem to be gearing up for an early fall election. Do not forget to vote for what you believe in.
Till then, continue to have a good summer.
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Challenging times for Canada's democracy
by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU E. CHISU, CD, PMSC,
FEC, CET, P. Eng.
Former Member of Parliament
Pickering-Scarborough East
The latest accelerating events connected to the residential school generated crisis, amplified by toppling and destroying statues of historical figures and the churches burned down represent a new trend on the political landscape of Canada. All these atrocities are happening with the political establishment closing their eyes to recent events and the total absence of law enforcement. How is democracy served or protected by the selective application of democratic rights already curtailed by the erratically established Covid -19 pandemic legislation?
Our nationhood is under threat by recent events. Instead of uniting the nation the political establishment is dividing it in pursuit of selfish and power hungry personal interests. They are interested only in keeping power at all costs.
The globalist declaration of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that: "Canada has no core identity" is already infamous.
As a reaction of this declaration many of the political establishment found it imaginative, evocative, even dangerous. It was, in effect, telling the world that the Canada everyone thought they knew was going through a transformation. What kind of transformation is the big question.
It's clear we are in a dangerous moment, one where a new direction is entirely possible under a reincarnation of newly found Marxist values and where going back to learning from the past seems unacceptable.
Trudeau informed the New York Times that this "new" country is no longer defined by our history or European national origins but by a "pan-cultural heritage," he ran the risk of overlooking much of what made this country one of the most respected in the world and the results were seen recently in events that rapidly evolved in a divided nation.
We might be heading in a new direction, but where we have come from, despite our many failures, has helped prepare us to preserve a society for inclusion and respect for our fellow Canadians.
We have been more open than closed and more accommodating than militant and the world noticed and respected it.
Recently the term "identity" has morphed into numerous meanings, including "identity politics," and the outcome is more dangerous and dividing than tried to be defined.
The ideals that once held this country together are now under increased threat. It's not wrong or unpatriotic to ask how Canada will fare with so many groups seeking recognition and redress, all seeking action at the same time. Is this new identity politics going to push us past the national breaking point?
The main political parties in Canada, with the exception of the emerging Peoples Party of Canada, seem to embrace this dangerous threat to democracy. There is a general acknowledgement that the issues surrounding the residential schools, gender inequities, the casual acceptance of racism, even the trivial manner in which we treat the nation's poor can no longer be accepted and have tainted the very history we have come to accept. But this does not mean that we should extirpate our history instead of learning from it.
All of these artificially amplified injustices actually give support to Trudeau's claim that Canada is now a "post-national" state, a globalist one, one seeking to transcend its history and supersede the nation-states. But that sounds more like we are trying to run away from our history rather than accommodating these new directions with our abiding long applied resiliencies.
Until recently, our political world was viewed as a giant struggle between the left and the right. The left concentrated on wealth disbursal, meaningful work, equity and equality, and democratic reform. The right rallied around smaller government, fewer restrictions in the marketplace and moral rigour in decision-making.
Suddenly, a new concept has entered the picture, seeking to eliminate past experiences and rejecting the very foundation of this nation called Canada.
Identity is now the great pursuit of the moment and dominates the thoughts of people seeking something different, something more equal. It makes some sense, given that all these identity-driven forces were most often ignored in our past pursuits of prosperity and respect.
The confluence of greater indigenous experience and wisdom integrated in our future evolution can only be a good thing since they are a constituent part of our nation. Greater recognition of women's rights and proper place in the workforce is long overdue, as is the acknowledgement that the discrimination of various types that had been present in our past need not be embedded in our future.
But the fact remains that we should remain a nation a special one where we continue to live in peace and prosperity. We have a story to tell and a world in which to tell it. Should we become a land of opposing factions seeking recognition, we can risk being motivated more by anger and pride than reason and compromise.
The Canadian experience, while never complete, can be torn apart in a time of ill motivated political ambitions. So it is time to have an intelligent political management in paying due respect from all Canadians towards each other if we are to navigate the unchartered waters ahead.
The recent identity politics is becoming more and more a disturbing and manipulative element in a democracy with its competing ideas. It remains every group's right to seek equal recognition for the groups that have been neglected in our history. However great care must be taken that such a desire not morph into a sense of superiority and ruin the democratic pursuit of our nation.
Democracy has been improved and enhanced the more egalitarian it became which required those in privilege and power to open the access to such things to the marginalized. But it can become toxic when those seeking inclusion then seek power to delegitimize the state.
So for of the potential challenges we live at this moment in time and, if we are not paying attention as citizens, it can quickly become one of the most dangerous moments in our country's journey, where our hegemony declines and our divisions rule our actions.
What do you think?
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