The New Canadian Federal Election Map

by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU. CHISU, CD, PMSC, FEC, CET, P. Eng. Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East With the world in turmoil, a new Canadian federal Election map was, recently voted on, in the House of Commons. Therefore, if everything goes well, The 45th Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. The date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. In addition to the statutory fixed election date, Canada has a constitutional requirement that elections for the House of Commons be held no more than five years after the preceding election. This is specified in both section 50 of the Constitution Act, 1867 and section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. . The election may occur before the scheduled date if the Governor General dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the Prime Minister for a snap election. This can happen, for example, after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely to occur during minority governments because the prime minister does not control a majority in the House of Commons. The next election will potentially be the first contested election, using the new 343 constituency electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census. New electoral boundary sets for each of the ten provinces were finalized between February 14, 2023 and July 8, 2023, and officially proclaimed on September 22, 2023. Any election that occurs on or after April 22, 2024 will use the new boundaries, while any called prior to that date, will re-use the 338-seat boundary set presently in force. However, the next federal election will most likely be held under this new electoral map as the Liberal-NDP pact assures the Prime Minister a majority in the House. A short analysis of the new electoral map reveals a general realignment of the electoral boundaries, which will generate an interesting new federal election. At first glance new electoral map seems to favour the Conservative Party. All told, the changes may work to the Conservatives' advantage, said Éric Grenier, a seasoned podcaster and polling expert who runs thewrit.ca. "Overall, I think the map does benefit the Conservatives more than any other party," Grenier told CBC News. While boundary changes can be important, perhaps the biggest boost to Conservative fortunes could come from the addition of news eats to the House of Commons, according to Grenier. The federal seat count is set to expand from 338 to 343. "Three extra ridings in Alberta — all three of those are probably new seats for the Conservatives. The extra seat in the B.C. interior is an area where the Conservatives are likely to win," he noted. "So they are the ones that benefit from the new seats that are being added." One seat being added in the Brampton, Ont. area might swing the Liberals' way, Grenier said. It is important to keep in mind that broader trends in party support and the state of the campaign play much more significant roles in an election's outcome than changes to the riding map. A change to a riding boundary that yields a few hundred more votes for the Liberals wouldn't matter much if they lose thousands more votes in broader support, Grenier stated. "No one wins an election or forms the government just because of the change of the map," Grenier continued. "But if we end up in the next election and it is really tight and it comes down to a few seats, then yeah, the map will be really important." We should note that the independent commissions do not consider partisan outcomes when they are drawing their boundaries. MPs are often extremely vocal about changes to their ridings, however, and do try to influence the process by attending public consultations and submitting formal objections to the commissions. The most controversial decisions the independent commissions made are the ones that eliminated, ridings altogether. In Quebec's Gaspé Peninsula, for example, two MPs will soon represent the peninsula instead of three. Northern Ontario is losing a riding, while a seat in Toronto is being divided between its neighbours. Not only do these decisions mean fewer MPs for a specific area, they also force sitting MPs to decide whether to seek nominations in neighbouring ridings. That reduces the boost parties typically receive from having an incumbent candidate, Grenier explained. "It levels the playing field a little bit," he said. "And if there [are] some cases where you have incumbent MPs having to go up against each other [for nominations], I mean that's a net loss for the party, right? Because they would rather have two incumbents." This said the parties will have to work hard in order to establish the new ridings and call the nomination for candidates. In the Durham region, there were also notable changes in two ridings: Pickering Uxbridge becomes Pickering Brooklyn and Durham undergoes even more changes, becoming York Durham. Let us see what surprises the next election will bring to Canada. In the meantime, you should take an interest in the new ridings and get ready to elect a more responsible government.