Canada and the Liberal NDP power deal

by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU E. CHISU, CD, PMSC, FEC, CET, P. Eng. Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East The recent agreement between the Trudeau Liberal government and the Jagmeet Singh New Democrats in the House of Commons to keep the minority Liberals in office until June of 2025 dramatically changes both the dynamic and policy options facing Canada in the next three years. With a decisively left oriented agenda we can probably expect more spending and climate change oriented pet projects with dubious costs to the taxpayers in a decisively falling economy. It takes 170 seats in the 338-seat House to have a clear majority. The Liberals are 11 short with 159. But with 25 from the NDP, the combined total of 184 gives the two parties together comfortable control in the House of Commons. So for the next tree years the conservative opposition will have little influence on the direction the country is going. This means that the Liberals have enough time to implement their plan to start an irreversible road to a "build back better" after a pandemic big reset. This deal in essence will substantially alter the way politics plays out over the next three years. Justin Trudeau is now guaranteed that he will remain as prime minister, should he choose to, until at least mid-2025. That would give him an even decade running the country. The Liberal - NDP agreement came just as the race for the leadership of the Conservative Party is heating up. Part of the excitement of the Conservative race was the possibility that the winner could be the next prime minister, and that there could be an election if the Liberal minority government were defeated in the House on a budget vote in 2023. As of this agreement, all these ambitions are put on hold and the future of the Conservative Party is not looking very promising. A demonstration that the Liberals are having a free hand, is the recent announcement that after noticeable delays and vehement denouncement of the project, the Liberal government has now announced negotiations with U.S. defence giant Lockheed Martin to purchase the F-35 fighter jets. Yet even as the end to that circuitous search appeared to finally be in sight, many unanswered questions remained: how much will the aircraft cost now? When will they start to arrive in Canada? And most importantly, were the past 12 years of debate and delays worth it to taxpayers? Procurement Minister Filomena Tassi and Defence Minister Anita Anand confirmed during a news conference that Lockheed Martin's stealth fighter beat out Sweden's Saab Gripen in a competition many had long considered the F-35's to lose. The government will now launch formal negotiations with the company this week for the purchase of 88 F-35s to replace Canada's CF-18s, with officials anticipating the talks will take about seven months and result in a final contract by the end of the year. The move into final negotiations for the F-35 has also prompted questions about whether Ottawa should have pressed ahead with its original deal more than a decade ago. Stephen Harper's Conservative government committed to buying 65 F-35s without a competition in 2010, before concerns about the stealth fighter's cost and capabilities forced it back to the drawing board. The Liberals promised in 2015 not to buy the F-35, but to instead launch an open competition to replace the CF-18s. They later planned to buy 18 Super Hornets without a competition as an "interim" measure until a full competition could be launched. But the government cancelled the plan after Boeing launched a trade dispute with Montreal aerospace firm Bombardier. Ottawa initiated the current bidding process in July 2019, at which point the Super Hornet and F-35 were allowed to compete. In the meantime, the government has been forced to invest hundreds of millions of additional dollars into the CF-18 fleet to keep it flying until a replacement can be delivered. By 2032, the CF-18s will have been around for 50 years. In the meantime, with this political waffling not only has Canada contributed US$613 million into the F-35's development since 1997, with another multimillion-dollar payment due in the coming weeks, but the stealth fighter is being used by the U.S. and a growing number of allies and Canada has been left far behind. As for the anticipated $19-billion cost, Anand has said that will be "further refined." The question still remains: Who should pay for these additional senseless costs incurred by taxpayers as a result of this political and civil service mismanagement? Another confirmation of the Liberal free hand is the recent new climate plan for Canada. The Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault tabled the new emissions reduction plan in the House of Commons last week. It is a legislated requirement under the net-zero emissions law the government passed last year. This projects the oil and gas industry will need to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 42 per cent from current levels by 2030 if the country is to meet its new targets. The government report projects that emissions from the oil and gas sector - including production, refining, and transportation via pipelines - could be 110 million tonnes by 2030, down from 191 million tonnes in 2019. So what does this mean? Less oil production and higher price for the consumers at the pump? The legislation is also introducing a tougher schedule to shift Canadian vehicle sales to electric models, promising a requirement that one in five new passenger vehicles be battery-operated within four years, and 60 per cent by the end of 2030. Great plan again with the taxpayers on the hook "We are making some progress between now and 2030," Guilbeault said. "But there'll be even more progress to come between 2030 and 2035." The coming federal budget is expected to expand on this issue with more electric vehicle news to come soon. The government will also aim for one-third of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles sold to be electric by 2030 and 100 per cent by 2040. So in conclusion be prepared to live in a dream world for the next three years and pay heavily for it. Good luck!