The Next Elections will likely occur under a new Election Boundary Map

by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU. CHISU, CD, PMSC, FEC, CET, P. Eng. Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East It is well known that every 10 years the federal election map of Canada is updated to reflect growth and shift in the population. The number of seats in the House of Commons is also modified accordingly. As the country moves from 338 electoral districts to 343, new seats are created. Overall, of the existing 338 ridings, 271 will see their boundaries changed. Three of the next electoral map's five new seats are going to be in Alberta. British Columbia is getting one more seat; a seat carved out of southern B.C.'s interior. Ontario gets one more seat but Toronto itself loses a seat, dropping from 25 to 24. It is worth noting that the system of independent provincial commissions re-drawing riding maps has been in place in Canada since 1964. After each decennial census, Elections Canada makes a recommendation on the adjustment of the number of seats to be added to the House of Commons, a recommendation which must be approved by the House of Commons. After that, though, it is up to three-person commissions in each province to re-draw existing maps to account for those new seats or redistribute existing seats based on population shifts. The head of each provincial commission is a judge appointed by the chief justice of each provincial court. The other two members of each provincial commission are appointed by the Speaker of the House of Commons and tend to be academics or retired civil servants. So far, at least, the Canadian system of re-drawing electoral districts has avoided the gerrymandering controversies of the United States where state legislatures get to re-draw electoral maps and often do so to obtain a partisan advantage for the party in control of that legislature. The "final reports" of each provincial commission are put forward after public consultations and after an initial report is tabled with a first draft of new riding boundaries. At this stage, the discussion on the boundary changes in many ridings continues in the various provinces and territories, carried on by the respective election commissions with input from the public, parliamentarians and other communities of interest. 'Communities of interest' refers to concerns that are relevant to the people of the particular region. It could be urban versus rural, it could be linguistic minorities, or even racialized minorities. The commissions are supposed to take those factors into account in trying to keep communities together, or at least avoiding the division of their voting power in a way that's harmful to those groups." Trying to keep communities of interest together when re-drawing riding boundaries is a concept that may appear sound, but can be quite tricky to implement. The commissions have to consider all factors and to make many tough choices. It is clear that we will see some changes in the future and the political parties are fully engaged in examining and defending their future election chances. It is a fact that realignment of the electoral boundaries creates new issues for both sitting MPs and future candidates. A new reality is being established. The commissions are expected to make their final decisions in April. By law, the new boundaries would then be in effect for any general election that occurs seven months after the finalization of boundaries. As things slowly develop across the country, it is interesting to see how the Province of Ontario deals with electoral boundary realignment. Not only because we live in Ontario, but because the sheer number of MPs elected in this province, represent a sizable portion of the House of Commons. The Ontario commission had a tendency to make changes in the electoral boundaries based on many factors, but essentially taking into consideration an argument based on urban-rural splits and communities of interest. Proposed changes in the Durham region are especially interesting, and the riding of Pickering Uxbridge, where I was a candidate in the past, stands out in particular. The Ontario commission took the Toronto-area riding of Pickering-Uxbridge and divided it up along urban-rural lines. The southern half of Pickering-Uxbridge, currently held by Liberal Jennifer O'Connell, becomes the riding of Pickering-Brooklin, picking up some polls from the northern part of the riding of Whitby. While those northern Whitby polls tended to vote Conservative, Pickering-Brooklin, because it is now more urban, should be more favourable to O'Connell's chances of re-election. The rest of the former riding of Pickering-Uxbridge, the northern, rural half, moves to a new riding to be called York-Durham that contains a much higher proportion of rural areas than urban or suburban areas and, as a result, would likely lean Conservative based on previous voting patterns. In conclusion, I ask you to follow these changes in the electoral boundaries, especially here in the Durham region. As the situation stands today, the next election will operate based on these new electoral boundaries. Be aware and be informed!