Election Fever Has Taken Over in Canada

Election Fever Has Taken Over in Canada by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU. CHISU, CD, PMSC, FEC, CET, P. Eng. Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East We are approaching the halfway point of a strange federal election campaign. Polls are heating up, the journalists and the pundits are getting more and more exited, predictions of the winner are abounding, but the economic situation is getting worse for the ordinary Canadian. The tariff war is being fueled by our neighbor to the South and the geopolitical situation is deteriorating by the day. The unpredictable nature of this tariff war is seriously worrisome and President Trump is playing a dangerously provocative game. Dare we call it bull-negotiations? In a situation like this, one hopes that the world might one day be a better place to live. On our political front, the time has come for parties to release their platforms, and we are being bombarded by promises from all sides. As usual, the politicians are promising everything to get the vote. Once the election is over, many of these promises will be forgotten. So diving into this midterm campaign, we see that the competing parties are not only campaigning, but they are constantly asking for money. The advertising is heating up, with negative advertising becoming the trending signature of the Conservative Party. Rallies with the leaders are being held regularly all over the country, with each party trying to convince the electorate to vote for them. However, the economic outlook in Canada is not so good for the near future. Canadian economic growth is expected to run below trend in 2025 and 2026, before finding greater balance in 2027. Slowing population growth and the impact of tariffs on business and consumer sentiment are the drivers of lower growth. Consumer spending had been improving with lower interest rates, but we expect this to act as a drag on growth as higher prices cut into spending power. This has the unemployment rate moving above its long-run level until 2027. Businesses and households see the economic climate as unpredictable. The scope and magnitude of planned US tariffs, along with the timing of their implementation, continue to change. This uncertainty is making it difficult for businesses to make investment and hiring decisions and to set prices. Trade tensions have led households to worry more about their job security and financial health, and they now intend to spend less. Concern about job security is particularly evident among people working in sectors that are highly dependent on trade. Businesses have revised down their sales outlooks. Indicators of future sales—such as order books and sales enquiries—have declined. This decline is particularly prominent in manufacturing. In addition, sectors that depend on households’ discretionary spending continue to report weak demand. Most businesses say they are continuing with existing investment projects, particularly projects aimed at maintaining capacity and improving productivity. In the oil and gas sector, many businesses expect only a modest impact on their near-term investment and production decisions. However, a tariff would make projects less attractive to investors over the medium term. Certainly, households and businesses expect trade tensions to lead to higher prices. This is reflected in a recent rise in their short-term inflation expectations. This is the tense situation in which the federal election campaign is being conducted. Undoubtedly, we can expect to see more interesting days, with more surprises to come. One interesting development has been the involvement of former Prime Minister Stephen Harper in the Conservative Party campaign. He was not very committed in previous campaigns, but this time he came out forcefully in favor of the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre. Let us hope that once the election campaign is over, Canadians will have a more predictable and a strong government to deal with the very serious issues we face both at home and abroad. Hope for the best and let your voice be heard. Get out and VOTE.