Canada and Christmas 2022

by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU. CHISU, CD, PMSC, FEC, CET, P. Eng. Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East Barely out of the Corona virus pandemic, Canada has entered into a dangerous area of high inflation. The politicians and the Bank of Canada are trying to resolve the problem but there is only a faint hope that they will succeed. So, here we are, trying to celebrate Christmas in an optimistic way and hoping for the best for the New Year, 2023. The World, including Canada, has finished 2022 grasping for some kind of relief in view of the war in Europe and a worsening economy. The year 2023 will be decisive in giving us the highly desired optimism for finding the road that will get us back to a new palatable normal. By now most countries' economies are in shatters. Such an insecure global outlook hardly makes for a secure context for economies to make a quick recovery. However, let us hope that the strongest economies will continue to show a resilience in the midst of the worsening geopolitical environment as government relief programs continue to offer some kind of support. How long this support will be in place is hard to predict. On the positive side, financial markets have done better than expected despite the earlier doom and gloom pronouncements prophesied nine months ago. Certainly, some things in the present world have clearly changed, and perhaps permanently. The global job market has been ravaged by COVID, especially in the service and tourism sectors, where typically low wages left millions vulnerable and highly dependent on government stimulus measures to survive. The prospects in this area are not very optimistic at present, with the war in Ukraine entering a new and more dangerous phase. The chances of small to medium sized businesses having to close their operations for good are strong and worrisome, as this is bound to create unprecedented hardship for many people and their families. The future doesn't look good, as the World Bank contends that Covid-19's wide-ranging effects will result in an increase of the poorest by up to 150 million people. The success of the past 30 years, where the numbers of the world's poorest declined from 36% of the 1990 global population to 8% just prior to the pandemic, has now been devastated. This is a tragedy of significant proportions. Yet we are still optimistic that the Western economies, including Canada's, are capable of rebounding despite a new insecure world which is devastating much of their productivity, just as we looked for recovery to commence. Unlike the Great Recession of 2008-2009, when economists felt they understood the ground and how to rebuild, our current predicament has left these same financial experts scratching their heads. They are aware the unemployment numbers will remain stagnant for perhaps decades. Our present economic challenges are on a global scale and the reverberating effects will remain unknown for years to come. Health concerns and the recent war in Ukraine have paralyzed us and have transcended everything as civilization seeks to survive something it can't even see. Our recovery will take much more than we actually think. Just when trust and cohesion are required at the societal level to wade through this calamity, increasing numbers of citizens and businesses are deeply concerned about where the economy is going. The wobbly decisions made by governments both provincially and federally add ferment to a badly deteriorating situation. The societal unease and fragmentation arising from this uncertainty could become an element for endless partisan divisions in upcoming provincial and federal elections. There will certainly be positive global changes on the societal scene and new trade opportunities with Canada's traditional allies in America, Asia and Europe. Let us hope we will have a new vision with the ability to focus on Main Street, not only on Wall Street. Canadians will look forward to effective and fair societal changes in line with their values and traditions and a more collaborative form of politics at all levels of government. This will be our life in 2023 - more uncertainty, slow economic recovery, rising divisions within the temporary hegemony caused by COVID, increased tensions with Russia and China, and the ever-present politically motivated climate change challenge. But for now, let's focus on enjoying the holiday season, look forward to the traditional Christmas festivities with our families, and hope for a better and more optimistic future. Will Canada remain a reasonable and reasoning country? The answer to that question is within our control, although much of our fate in 2023 will be determined elsewhere. How it will unfold and how drastically these external forces will influence us remains to be seen. So shall it be 'Bah, humbug!' or 'Merry Christmas!' Your choice.