Canada Federal Elections Rumor

by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU. CHISU, CD, PMSC, FEC, CET, P. Eng. Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East The House of Commons returned to work in a hectic and emotional atmosphere as the parties align themselves for a potential snap election, with the Conservatives being the most excited. Over the past year, the Liberal government has been racing against time, being on the defensive most of the time; undertaking damage control. If they do not correct the trend, Canada’s “Natural Governing Party” is on the brink of one of its most significant electoral defeats in history; probably worse than their defeat in 2011. However, most Canadians are not actively calling for an early election, and many are currently satisfied with the political maneuvering by the Bloc Québécois (BQ) and the New Democratic Party (NDP) to delay it. Canadians are more preoccupied with their everyday lives and less interested in an election, which might not bring anything new; just spend more of the taxpayers’ money. The Conservatives with Pierre Poilievre are ready to issue more non confidence motions but they have yet to present a compelling argument that the immediate election they are pushing for will result in a change in government. Political analysts often remind us of the uncertainty inherent in elections, citing the famous words of former British prime minister. Harold Wilson once said, “A week is a long time in politics,” These observations serve as a reminder that nothing in politics is ever guaranteed. For the last year, the Liberal polling numbers have been overwhelmingly bad—and consistently so, regardless of the Liberals’ attempts to reverse the tide. In addition to polling, political forecaster Philippe Fournier’s 338Canada model analysis gives the Conservatives if an election is called today a 99 percent probability of winning a majority government. Projections show a landslide victory: 219 seats for the Conservatives and just 69 for the Liberals. If these numbers hold, it will be a crushing defeat for Trudeau’s party. Recent electoral results provide further evidence of the Liberals’ precarious position. In the last three federal by-elections, the party lost previously secure Liberal strongholds. St. Paul’s in Toronto and LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Quebec, both considered safe Liberal seats, slipped from their grasp. In Winnipeg’s Elmwood-Transcona, the party suffered a particularly humiliating defeat, finishing in fourth place with less than 5 percent of the vote.However, these are still by-elections and until an election is called, these presumptions are just speculation. Yet, despite these overwhelming odds, Trudeau remains steadfast in his decision to lead the Liberals into the next election. It almost seems like a political re-enactment of The Battle of Agincourt, fought between the French and the English on October 25, 1415; only one of many battles in the Hundred Year War. In the political analogy, this Hundred Year War is fought between the Liberals and Conservatives. Trudeau is positioning himself as a Liberal Henry V, who with less forces that the enemy has prepared to lead his Liberal Army to electoral victory, in a final effort to halt the Conservative onslaught. Well…, it might succeed, even though the outlook at the moment, seems bleak. October 2025 might see the day as did the Battle of Agincourt…… Many political observers point to a well-known rule in Canadian politics: after ten years in power, a party’s time is up. While this principle has some historical basis, it fails to capture the deeper undercurrents driving the present demand for change. Canadians are not just tired of the Trudeau Liberals; they are frustrated, even angry, as the polling numbers reflect. This growing dissatisfaction stems from the way the Liberal government has failed to communicate with voters, its persistent misalignment with their priorities, and lingering questions about the party’s trustworthiness and integrity. Furthermore, despite the significant advantages that Poilievre and the Conservatives have in this political climate, they have not yet capitalized on their lead. While the numbers are favourable, the Conservatives have failed to convincingly argue that an election is urgently needed. Positioning the campaign around specific policies, such as eliminating the carbon tax, an old slogan from 2011, no longer resonates strongly with voters. A more powerful message is needed, one, offering voters a clear path to a new government with new ideas and more oriented towards real life as Canadians see it. This inability of the Conservatives to provide certainty of real change was a major factor in Erin O’Toole’s defeat in the last federal election. Unfortunately, the trend seems to continue. Taking stock of the political entourage surrounding Pierre Poilievre, one can only shake one’s head, seeing the same old, same old, misguided and listless crew. Voters need a clear assurance that supporting the Conservatives will indeed bring about a positive change in government. The only choice available to the Conservatives is a clear a majority government, because they do not have any other political party with which to form an alliance. In conclusion we will have to wait and see how this battle of the political war of the roses will play out. The red rose against the blue rose. What is your take?