Canadian Fall Politics 2024

by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU. CHISU, CD, PMSC, FEC, CET, P. Eng. Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East Summer vacation is over and parliamentarians are returning to Ottawa to deal with issues and vote for new pieces of legislation. It has been an eventful summer with many important domestic and foreign issues arising, constituting both happy and unhappy surprises. These will certainly influence the Fall session of the House of Commons. After a politically eventful summer break featuring an NDP carbon tax climb-down, a torn up Supply and Confidence Agreement, several historic Liberal losses in by-elections,resignations, cross-country leadership tours, and early election whispers, Canada’s 338 MPs will be returning to their seats in the House of Commons. It was a busy summer on the defence spending file as well. During the run up to the July NATO Summit in Washington, D.C, Canada did face growing calls from allies at home and abroad to boost its military spending. Then the Trudeau government made a surprise announcement on the last day of the summit, that it would indeed reach the 2 percent spending target by 2032. The announcement was met with widespread skepticism, however. There were few details and even less evidence of follow-through. This week’s return of the House of Commons will be the first opportunity for parliamentarians to question the government about its plan, including the details glaringly absent in Trudeau’s hasty announcement. Our political leaders will also have to dial down the rhetoric and seriously look at the interest of Canadians. Surprise announcements devoid of details of the kind the prime minister delivered at the 2024 NATO summit will further erode Canada’s credibility with its alliance partners and contribute to public cynicism. There is a need to put the brakes on foreign spending when the Canadian need is to spend more on internal infrastructure projects. The current constraints on the public purse are pressing and real. In the absence of renewed clarity about Ottawa’s formal constitutional responsibilities, politicians and bureaucrats will continue to struggle, fumble, and ultimately stumble in their efforts to promote the wellbeing and interest of the nation. Let us briefly analyze the current state of affairs in Canada. We see that the fedral budget for fiscal year 2024-25 is $537.6 billion. That may sound like a lot of money, but little maneuver room exists. Almost half of the budget is earmarked either for fixed transfer payments to the provinces, established by a complex formula based on provincial differences in per capita revenues, revenue sources, and tax rates—or social programs such as Old Age Security, Canada Pension Plan, and Employment Insurance, which many Canadians rely on. Canada’s public debt now accounts for 41.9 percent of the country’s GDP, with annual interest charges totalling a stunning $54.1 billion. To put that in perspective, Ottawa now spends more on servicing its debt than its health transfer to the provinces, or more than twice what it spends on defence ($28.8 billion). Another 19 percent of the budget is accounted for by what in Ottawa-speak is called “grants and contributions”—essentially cheques that Ottawa cuts to businesses, organizations, and people. This includes things like subsidies to battery plants, payments to First Nations, and the new dental and drug programs. This leaves $123.1 billion—or less than a quarter of the federal budget—for all of the operating and capital expenditures of some 129 federal departments and agencies. Currently Ottawa seems to be engaging in some belt-tightening to meet its fiscal obligations. In its 2023-24 budget, the government announced it is committed to reducing “the pace and scale and growth of government spending” to pre-pandemic levels. At the same time, it is leaving no stone unturned to raise revenues with higher taxes, including the recent increase in capital gains taxation, but there has been no mention of reining in foreign spending. The writing is clearly on the wall. There will be less money—not more—in the next several years to fund new programs, not to mention expenditures that are already planned. The governing Liberals seem to be in disarray, incapable of countering the main negative issues that are engulfing the country. And so, the Conservative Party, the loyal opposition, is on the attack. But all they are doing, is continuing to harp relentlessly on the gas tax issue without putting forth any new ideas. Canadians will soon be fed up with this rhetoric and will seek to find what new ideas the Conservatives propose for the nation if they aspire to govern. The affordable housing issue is still a hot one, as well as is the rising crime rate, especially in Toronto, which is a liberal stronghold. This is a concern for the Liberal Party and they will try to focus on this issue in a way that convinces the electorate that they are serious about it, hoping to regain lost ground. The immigration file is also a hot one and strongly connected with the temporary workers problems and foreign students housing. Another hot issue with international ramifications continues to be the Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference in Federal Electoral Processes and Democratic Institutions. On the international scene Canada has developed problems with India in addition to new problems with China. This is not good news for Canada because the cooling of relations with these two countries might have unforeseen effects on the Canadian economy. In my opinion Canada should focus on resolving internal critical issues, dedicating funding to these, rather than adventuring unprepared into international relations, spending relentlessly on soon-to-be-failed projects. The government should show more responsibility about how taxpayers’ money is spent. Certainly, this Fall will be an interesting one, and there is a faint hope that Canadians will see some better results for their money. So let’s be positive. Let us not abandon hope!