New Federal Ridings and the impact on Durham Region

by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU. CHISU, CD, PMSC, FEC, CET, P. Eng. Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East As of this week, any federal election called will be based on an entirely new electoral map. There are major changes in the GTA as well as the Durham Region, where serious tensions could emerge. After each decennial (10-year) census, independent electoral boundaries commissions review and, if necessary, make changes to the electoral districts in each province to reflect changes and movements in Canada's population. The commissions determine the boundaries so that the number of people in each electoral district is as equal as reasonably possible, while also taking into account communities of interest or identity, historical patterns and geographic size in sparsely populated regions. As a result of the most recent changes, Canada will have 343 electoral districts instead of the previous 338, and as such, 343 new Members of Parliament. The new ridings in the Durham region are Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa, Pickering-Brooklin, Bowmanville–Oshawa North, and York-Durham. The ridings of Ajax, Whitby and Oshawa were relatively unchanged. However, the riding of Pickering-Uxbridge became Pickering-Brooklin with Uxbridge transferred to the new riding of York-Durham. Major changes occurred in the old Durham riding of former Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole, which is undergoing a seismic shift, as Durham is set to be dissolved into two new ridings: York-Durham for its northern half and Bowmanville-Oshawa North for its southern half. Of the two new ridings, York-Durham is of particular interest. The sizable electoral district now includes parts of the Conservative held York-Simcoe (which no longer exists) and Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock (Conservative held). But, it also contains Liberal ground: about half of Markham-Stouffville and two-thirds of Pickering-Uxbridge. The Liberals have previously posted healthy leads in the both former ridings, but at least one incumbent, Helena Jaczek, has announced she will not be running for re-election. Pickering-Brooklin, meanwhile, is a riding many Conservative hopefuls are eying. Such keen interest means that the stage could be set for interesting Durham Region electoral showdowns. In Durham Region we will have 6 federal ridings instead of the 5 held previously. Until the next federal election, we have three Liberal holds and two Conservative. Many things will happen in the coming months, with parties selecting candidates and getting ready for the election, which will probably be held sometime in 2025. For the moment Elections Canada estimates that if the 2021 federal election were held with the new boundaries in place, the Liberals would have three fewer seats and the Conservatives would gain seven. Meanwhile, in the GTA, it appears that the Conservatives have a chance of picking up several new seats. While many ridings are undergoing few to no changes, there are a handful, including the Durham Region, where the state of play could become spicy. As of today, ridings in the Durham Region play out as follows: Oshawa, Bowmanwille-Oshawa North and York-Durham will likely be Conservative, while Pickering-Brooklin and Whitby lean Conservative and Ajax leans Liberal. With the situation in the country becoming more complicated both economically and socially we all hope that the next election will be able to bring about some badly needed changes. Compounded with influences from a rapidly shifting geopolitical situation, the next election should bring interesting surprises. Looking at the current military and political turmoil in Europe and the Middle East, we can already sense that they will have an influence on the electoral situation in Canada. The latest Middle East conflict is particularly troubling in that regard. Six months after Hamas's deadly Oct. 7, 2023 attacks on Israel, during which nearly 1,200 people were killed and about 250 were taken hostage, a war has broken out that has claimed more civilian lives in Gaza. As a result, Canadian political parties have been forced to navigate difficult issues raised by a bloody conflict that has deeply divided the electorate. The ways in which the parties have reacted and the positions they have taken — on matters such as funding for the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) and an NDP-sponsored motion that called on the government to work toward recognizing a Palestinian state — are having an impact on their support in different communities. Such events and events that will follow until the next election is called, will add to the uncertainty of the election results. We must observe, participate and do the best for our country in the next election. In the end, Canada that should matter most to all of us. We all live here, and we need to learn to live together and build the future of our children. What do you think?