Canada and the Electrical Vehicle (EVs) adventure

by Maj (ret'd) CORNELIU. CHISU, CD, PMSC, FEC, CET, P. Eng. Former Member of Parliament Pickering-Scarborough East I have written before about the largesse of the Ontario Provincial Government and the Federal Government in corporate welfare directed at Electric Battery and Electric Vehicle manufacturers, all of which are foreigner lead enterprises. Now it is interesting to analyze how misguided this approach is, spearheaded by politicians rather thn engineering professionals.Politicians may be great at wordsmitting legislation, but have no clue how to deal with essential infrastructure projects. They can spew verbiage non-stop, but essentially they are empty brainers when it comes to managing the future of this country. Considering the feasibility of the Federal Government’s plan under its Electric Vehicle Availability Standard to mandate that all vehicles sold by 2035 be zero-emission vehicles, we encounter a complete lack of vision. Moreover, it reveals a complete ignorance of the realities of this great country called Canada, which encompasses the second largest territory in the world. While the use of electric vehicles (EVs) offer environmental advantages over internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, concerns persist over cost, driving range, charging options, and carbon emissions during battery cell manufacturing, making mandated goals uncertain. Geopolitical and economic implications also arise from EV mandates in the US and Canada, particularly as they relate to the dominance of Chinese EV manufacturers. There are security risks associated with Chinese control of critical minerals essential for EV production, economic threats to the North American auto sector, and hurdles faced by local automakers in competing with their Chinese counterparts. The intensive use of aluminum in EVs manufacturing to lower overall weight and increase efficiency and driving range, also poses environmental concerns. Aluminum production is carbon-intensive, and increased usage raises an EV’s GHG emissions life cycle significantly, adding to an EV’s carbon footprint. In the event of a critical mineral shortage, prioritizing small battery packs for compact and midsize EVs could maximize GHG emissions reductions. However, automakers profit more from SUVs, and consumer preferences lean heavily towards SUVs. Thus, if automakers prioritize fewer of the larger battery packs that large electric SUVs use over many smaller battery packs, the expected reduction in GHG emissions may not materialize as forecast. There will also be potential disruptions in the market due to the prescriptive nature of the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, which mandates that EVs comprise a specific minimum proportion of sales. If there is a misalignment among government, consumers, and auto dealers with these targets it could lead to elevated prices, vehicle shortages, and unmet consumer demands. Since EVs are relatively new to Canada, there is limited data on collision-related insurance claims, leading to uncertainty about future EV insurance costs. In the UK, for example, where EVs are more established, insurance rates in 2023 for EVs saw dramatic increases compared to conventional vehicles. Statistics also show that EV repair costs are higher than those for ICE vehicles. Maintenance and general repairs for EVs differ from those for conventional vehicles. Although electric drivetrains have fewer moving parts, potentially simplifying maintenance and repairs, EVs use sophisticated technologies that may raise repair costs. A large survey revealed that EVs encounter more problems than gas-powered vehicles, particularly with their electric motors, batteries, and charging systems, highlighting their complexities. EVs offer lower refuelling or charging costs compared to gas-powered vehicles. According to the federal government, driving a midsize car for 400 kilometres costs approximately $10 in electricity compared to $50 in gas. However, this comparison may not be entirely fair due to the significant government taxes included in gas prices that are absent from electricity prices. Assuming comparable taxes on electricity as on gas, the cost of the above recharging example could rise significantly from $10 to $25.62, still cheaper than gas, but less so than without the taxes. As of 2023, Canada had 26,500 public charging ports. Projections indicate that the country will need about 455,500 public ports by 2035. This requires adding about 98 new ports every day over 12 years. These estimates do not include private charging ports. Electrical utilities in Canada will face significant hurdles in ensuring that distribution grids can handle the substantial demand for EV charging capacity. Upgrading and expanding various grid components will be necessary, but the compressed timeframe imposed by the regulations raises uncertainty about timely completion. Overall, the government’s ambitious timeframe is unrealistic, risky, and potentially ineffective in achieving significant emissions reductions. Concerns also arise regarding threats to Canada’s auto sector, its nascent EV supply chain, and the substantial investments needed for charging infrastructure and grid enhancements. In addition, potentially higher EV ownership costs would disproportionately affect lower- and middle-income individuals, with accelerated adoption timelines exacerbating these issues. Canada needs a more flexible approach to light-duty vehicle emissions reductions. This includes rescinding the current mandated zero-emission vehicle sales minimums and replacing them with increasingly stringent GHG emission standards. Such a change would enable automakers to adjust their vehicle portfolios to market needs while still meeting emission reduction goals. Furthermore, Canada’s targeted standards and timelines should align more closely with industry efforts to source critical minerals and develop less costly, yet profitable EVs with superior operating characteristics. Beyond these concerns, more can be learned about this matter from the excellent analysis provided by Jerome Gessaroli, a Senior Fellow with the Macdonald Laurier Institute, In his article, “ A Bumpy road ahead – A critical assessment of Canada’s Electric Vehicle Availability Standard”, he raises important concerns.. For instance, did Ford, Trudeau and company have any contact with people who have deep knowledge in the EV field before recklessly spending taxpayers money on EV related investments and generous corporate welfare? We can now see the potential results of politically motivated action that lacks fundamental analysis and we can foresee the potential damage for the country due to ignorant politicians. In conclusion, we need to attract competent, thinking people to politics. People with expertise in various fields such as science, engineering and economics, who can ask the right questions and make reasonable decisions. Or do you think that the lawyers, political science graduates and staffers with no background in real life currently occupying elected positions are up to the task? Your opinion counts. Do what you can to express it.